石油工业技术监督

指标权重的确定是风险综合评价的关键技术之一,权重构成是否合理直接影响评价的科学性。通过对20多年来的450余篇风险评价文献进行调查研究,从十余种权重确定方法中遴选出5种最常用的方法用于油气钻井井控风险定量评价实例研究,提出一种主客观组合权重计算方法,并将其运用到实例中进行检验。结果表明,单一的权重确定方法有一定的缺陷,组合权重法比单一的指标权重确定方法更加合理、准确,且研究成果可以用于多指标风险综合评价指标权重的确定,更适用于具有高风险的油气井钻井井控风险的评估。

The determination of index weight is one of the key technologies in the comprehensive evaluation of risk, and whether the index weights are reasonable or not directly affects the science of the evaluation. Through the investigation and study of more than450 literatures on risk assessment in 20 years, five most commonly used risk evaluation methods are selected from more than ten weight determining methods and they are applied to the case study of the quantitative assessment of oil and gas well drilling risk. A subjective-objective combination weighting calculation approach is put forward and it is verified by the cases. It is shown that single weight determination method has some defects, and the subjective-objective combination weight determination method is more reasonable and accurate than any single index weight determination method. The study result can be used for the determination of the index weights in the multi-index comprehensive risk evaluation, and it is more suitable for the assessment of high risk such as in oil and gas well drilling.